Tuesday, April 11, 2006

RealClear JJV

Well, Tom Bevan over at the inestimable Real Clear Politics published my prediction on the Democratic primaries a year hence. It can be found here.

As it does have a Napoleon reference I thought Dave should take a look. He will probably want to edit it anyway as I seem incapable of linking it to a word. Curse you html! Anyone interested in politics should read the realclear guys everyday. As the letters show they are of interest to the left and the right.

Update: Now Dick Morris knows more about toe sucking than I ever will. But as a political prognosticator he is a fine dancer. He suddenly believes that the mayor of Yonkers will give Hillary Clinton a strong race in New York. Spencer, is a strong conservative, probably too strong for New York. More importantly the entire New York ticket is in danger because of the Governor's race and power of the Hillary to turn out the vote in November. For the first time in living memory the New York State Senate may go Democrat. Pataki and Giuliani were not party builders. There is no strong Republican farm team in New York. The way a Republican wins in New York is to get the endorsement of the Conservative party, stoke massive turn out as well as lopsided Republican margins in Upstate and Long Island while holding the Democrat to less than 60% of the New York City vote. Hillary is too beloved by suburban women to allow this to happen. The mighty machines of Suffolk and Nassau counties are no more (undone by Republicans acting like Democrats). Dick Morris will play for the Knicks before Hillary gets less than 55% of the vote against Mr. Spencer. As for his predictions on the Presidency, there is no good political question about the future to which the answer is "Al Gore." Hillary will beat him like she was Bobby Brown and he Whitney Houston.

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